From December 14th to 15th, at制那 the EU’s last summit of the year, in務城 addition to topics suc鄉空h as Britain’s s快道ecession from the European Union,現街 refugee sharing, and Europe月嗎an defense integratio年吃n, the British re船道ferendum decided to “Brexit” and was通媽 repeatedly mentioned again. "Franc如錢e-Germany axis" topic, be讀外cause the unanimous statements of他唱 the leaders of the two countries員子 on the issue of promotin媽雪g economic reform in the euro zone onc匠場e again attracted att又票ention.

After the respective French and Germ個對an general elections en船門ded, China's poli來照tical transition and reforms were also山美 brought to China's attention. The 信金Chinese academic community made ti科做mely reflections on the direction of 畫高the EU after the French-German election門都 and Sino-European relations. Recently購訊, it was sponsored by車離 the European Studi又費es Center of Fuda理劇n University/Si從哥no-European Humanities Exchange Re短要search Center, 這子the Shanghai Eu市購ropean Society,謝姐 and co-organized慢鐵 by the European Research I弟微nstitute of the European Society of Chi請煙na and the Shanghai Ins對匠titute of International Rel工體ations. At the "Symposium on the會空 Development of國會 the EU and China-EU音電 Relations after the French-Ger草年man Election," the participating ex錯人perts discussed the curr微國ent status and prospects of the EU's e雜麗conomic, social, political, 快會and diplomatic issues, t子那he impact of the French-German區坐 election on the EU, and th路通e prospects for the development o跳件f China-EU relation吧請s.

Ding Chun, Director of th去懂e Center for European Studies at the 服雪Fudan University/China-Euro好筆pean Humanities Exchange Rese刀亮arch Center and Chairperson of t很笑he European Union錯匠 Jean Monet, pointed out that whe小裡n the "Roman Treaty" was first, 店煙Europe was still not peac謝又eful, including the French ele喝西ction. Horror, the di數兵fficulty of German 訊有cabinet. The rights game between 工亮the EU and its member states, the in白地stitutional shortcomings i錢樂n EU governance, the economic short-ter冷暗m recovery moment裡我um is good, and the lon計還g-term growth is weak-話輛division and integration, conver木科gence and separa到坐tion, Europe is in the process of討理 exploring where to go again 民麗. In terms of Sin書醫o-European relati道下ons, bilateral economic and trad我錢e relations are both a stable區來 anchor and a clu妹學tch. The two sides are in the unity of 場金contradictions and c弟農ompetitions between competit紙土ion and cooperation.

On December 15, in Brussels, the cap畫醫ital of Belgium山站, French President Macron作物 (left) and Germa物哥n Chancellor Angela Merkel a劇女ttended a press co一雜nference.

Eurozone reform depends 對光on France and Germany t村上o compromise

On December 6, the European 體懂Commission issued 有醫a draft reform plan for the euro zo嗎討ne, proposing to transform t鐘妹he euro zone bailout fund into 秒吃a European monetary fund from 2019; 花懂it is proposed to set up the eu我坐ro zone economy and finan答校ce minister from November 2019; Establ房花ish integrated t唱個ools in the budge作頻t to help non-eurozone能城 countries move close雜機r to the euro.

These reforms aim to increase the EU’兒老s ability to wit南聽hstand crises, build a more resilien但到t economy, and reduce economic長花 differences between cou有用ntries, and also partial匠下ly echo the reform pro熱關posals put forward by French 秒票President Macro遠事n.

Macron put forward a series of舊學 proposals to reshape請遠 the European Union in Septem司也ber this year. However, th媽店e euro zone reform知厭 plan has reach跳志ed an impasse due to事林 differences within the Europ店日ean Union. The euro zone economic power知睡s such as Germany and 要中the Netherlands believe 窗分that the reform plan means taking ris聽暗ks together with other heavily indebt拍筆ed country part秒章ners such as Spain, Italy, 公和and Greece, and thus retain 劇媽their reservations. At t日很his EU summit, G業火erman Chancellor Angela Me自購rkel gave Macron a more affirmativ外什e answer, "It is time to push forw鐵學ard the reform of紙可 the euro." The 務光single currency is業讀 more favorable 相短in the case of a high debt 在月crisis.

Merkel and Macron said at工場 a joint press conference on the 他視15th that Germany and France will 用農reach a "common posit下醫ion" on the euro zo老我ne reform plan by Ma但日rch next year. Macron said he als議男o hopes that by June nex工相t year, the 19 member地北 states of the euro zone will reach a 懂不"road map" for euro zone reform.

At this summit, a兒廠lthough no concrete results have been p術區roduced on the euro zone reform pla會房n, it will inevitably become the focus工那 of EU discussions in the coming month坐匠s.

Zhang Ji (director of the Sino冷見-Foreign Humanities Exc慢廠hange Research 做好Center of Fudan University區什 and deputy director of the French R為那esearch Center): Rejuve慢制nating France’s leaders舊問hip relies on French-German cooperati腦來on, but it is n他綠ecessary to change the pattern聽微 of “strong virtue an習男d weak law” in the French-German cooper我少ation. It's already a數亮 bit eager to try. The German cabine窗爸t negotiations have not been 車少completed, and Macron 筆計just took this opportu訊如nity to make a little change to the sit他都uation of "strengthening the law湖又 and weakening t睡西he law." This is the side熱花 of Macron's European polic下校y; the other side of Macron's Europea的自n policy is to re長相spond to the needs of the 腦畫people and guarantee 討嗎a Europe, which can 花樹provide protection, protects the Eur數銀opean people in terms of safety, eco跳村nomy and value, especially the 玩門middle class and worki小坐ng class whose interest你秒s have been damaged. 友紅To achieve this goa器員l, Macron’s policy framework in行雨cludes strengthenin那房g the EU’s diploma票區tic and military capabilities都空, enhancing the EU’s efficiency in re綠雜sponding to large-scale refug科窗ees, revitalizing the 舞空European economy, and deepe兒店ning the euro’s reg業子ional integration.

In the past, Merkel費中 and Macron's new gove我些rnment generally c資件ooperated, and now it depends on t員明he formation of the German cabinet.又湖 The highlight of the F森票rench-German cooperation is in the de錢家fense and security fields, 高但and the related dis南新putes are relatively sm物愛all; but there are stil風車l many differences in the 物好economic field. There are some diff水金erences between France 窗理and Germany in terms of deepening the 議些integration of the euro area. Mac工商ron emphasizes th民服e risk sharing in the euro area,雨光 as well as a common b會自udget and strength遠還ening joint inv費哥estment to stimulate economic g票鐵rowth.

Wang Shuo (Deputy Director of the Eu北嗎ropean Institute高亮 of China Institute of Mode友嗎rn International Relations): Fo花農r Macron, European construction 哥我is tied to his domestic economic 小街reform and construction. He know信一s that France’s current econ黑計omy is very tolerant道視 of the euro area工鐵 and the European Union, and Mac刀學ron has always believed t門醫hat after the establishment of the euro很但 area, Germany has received 為相the largest dividen是熱d, and France has not received著現 the largest dividend. Macron章你 believes that if such a trend con了商tinues, the euro zon數舞e will collapse. This is for Merkel.對但 For Merkel, she als商數o knows that she need白放s to change. The compr討玩omise between Fra好內nce and Germany is not a compromi學錯se between the two countries, but a co什上mpromise between Fran來短ce and Germany for綠畫 the EU’s development prospects.

Hu Chunchun (Deputy Di公雪rector of the Germa道銀n Research Center of Tongji Universit愛睡y): In terms of the in-depth reform 低錯of the European Union, i老是t is now obvious that Macron is a場農 little bit forward on 暗鐘the core issues of France內他 and Germany, competing for the leader懂冷ship of EU reform an長雜d development. If Macron’s so-called看請 establishment of明秒 a common Ministry站下 of Finance in the Eurozone, a冷還nd a common fiscal policy, and the M知這inister of Finance should 子家be put on the issue o月謝f personnel selec上多tion, you can immediately see how mu刀她ch Merkel will face. difficult. Whet務制her the future finance minis街吃ter of the EU is Fren子問ch or German. Behind the tw聽遠o fiscal cultures is the developmen看低t experience accumul火人ated in the developme麗請nt history of the two那多 nation-states.

Dai Qixiu (Professor at the School of I到還nternational Studies藍線, Shanghai International Studi鄉土es University, researcher at the Eu新遠ropean Union Research Center, deputy s放快ecretary-genera分北l of the European Society of Shan樂區ghai): Macron’s most impor算動tant diplomatic appeal is to res去藍hape European leadershi低空p, both in economic issues and se鄉就curity. Germany is also very cl廠是ear about this and re自道cognizes it.

It is no doubt that France and書制 Germany continu快南e to play a cooperative le不如adership role, but it invo門員lves the question of h輛們ow to balance the cooperation大媽 between the two co科外untries in the politica件雨l and economic fields. Specifically, du女問e to the sustained development of Ge為國rmany and the sluggishness of Fran雜見ce in recent year服影s, the balance betwee高遠n prosperity and decline has been brok業生en. France takes the refor學下m of the euro are說影a, especially the unificat國市ion of laws, as the priori花拍ty of reform; while 鐵技Germany is eager to promote the field 月要of common security a樂話nd defense. How to balance such金頻 problems needs to be ble鄉國nded in, not the goal pr算用oblem is the path problem.我呢

I think Germany will make some compr拿低omises, and the euro zone reform can醫一 still be promoted when i拿森t does not involve the 師下topic of debt sharing.

The Influence of French-G樹化erman Factors on China-EU Relations

Zhang Ming, head of the Chin件兒ese mission to the European工火 Union, pointed o事志ut last month that when he我子 stressed the "Four Opport北他unities" facing the devel新長opment of China-EU r自員elations, the EU ho相我pes to promote a reform站相 package after the Ger問草man-French election this year. If China如秒 wants to resolve the main c窗務ontradiction of白員 insufficient and u子工neven development, the k著要ey lies in reform. The道我refore, both sides can use th雜為e opportunities of a 南窗new round of technology and in少農dustrial revolution to increa些話se investment in innovation服有, and they can al你都so cultivate new growth poi船知nts in the field森小s of digital economy and green developm著暗ent. .

From the identific雨資ation of decision-m草紅akers to specific b會化usiness promotion, the closeness of C樂吃hina-EU economic cooperation工拍 is self-evident. However, there a上技re still noises unde家體r this trend, including Franc討風e, Germany as the representative, the p校們rudent attitude towards the entr照討y of overseas assets, and船跳 the doubtful attitude of the他南 Chinese economic s妹美ystem.

Long Jing (Deputy Direct還吃or of the European Research Center of愛明 the Shanghai Institut場日e of International Studies): 什購The next 2-3 years may be a cr男麗ucial moment for adjustment within習下 the EU. On the one hand, he will 鄉男negotiate with the United King人腦dom on "Brexit" and at the same靜車 time initiate the above-m不劇entioned reforms. The EU will become要也 more internal than outreach. Und大多er such a background, th道兵e EU may maintain a balanced and習河 healthy development with major花著 external partnersh街有ips, rather than substantively in機城tervene in some intern購電ational issues beyond its 海書reach. In terms of China-E問事U relations, the EU and major放吧 member states are unlikely to inf花西ringe on China’s core interest得了s on sensitive issues, and will s請數trengthen cooperation章吧 with China in counter-terrorism.吧會

However, on the other hand,白對 many of the EU reforms will invo土火lve further concessions on th什通e sovereignty of membe煙南r countries in the financial field, w舊空hich may result in如好 more stringent EU financial standar愛兒ds and investment standards,關門 and may result為快 in higher inves黃的tment in China’s investment in E光金urope. barrier.還生 After the start of the "multi-sp月化eed Europe" devel煙動opment, the EU may step了錢 up its emphasis on u民火nity and integration within the唱冷 EU, and furthe用會r develop various policy tools不現 under its integration很自 policy to appeas秒家e the new member states 可商of Central and Eastern Europe. For 到地a cooperative mechan森說ism like "16+1"歌讀, the reforming EU may show greater sen笑謝sitivity, even pr還海ecautionary sentiment. It may trigger森還 a rise in criticism o計姐f China's European policy. Some countr區高ies in Central and人市 Eastern Europe, even some small做靜 and medium-sized E唱筆U countries like人科 Austria, their willingness to coop日綠erate with economic f兵睡orces outside the EU will not only w開關eaken but may r西北ise further. This met行影hod is used to combat the relatively m又船arginalities within the EU These 得能countries may inc月爸rease their support and participation 術歌in China's "Belt and服我 Road Initiative" to知書 leverage China's 又爸economic and trade i制花nvestment and infrastru雨高cture cooperati音謝on to promote the implem器兒entation of their own develo問讀pment strategies她妹.

Luo Changyuan (Professo輛她r, Center for European Studies嗎姐, Fudan University, Deputy Director門放, Institute of Worl劇議d Economics): Fr音花om a trade persp線日ective, we can observe two facts. 家長On the one hand, China’s trade with the分裡 EU accounts for the EU’s total trade草家 The status is becoming more如行 and more important, but on the o放爸ther hand, the trade bet件金ween the EU countries is relative遠哥ly squeezed, and its share筆木 is getting smaller an做還d smaller.

When Chinese imports inc嗎個rease, the weakening effect on trad到和e within the EU countries 街時is most pronounced. Although Chin很湖a's trade exports have a sign北通ificant weakening 金器effect on US trade, they are relati業火vely smaller. Compared wit長水h India, India’s e可書xport of commodities to the EU i亮街s actually contrary to China’s law.飛來 When India’s trade 通作volume with EU countries is la書都rger, the intern門湖al trade of EU countri刀坐es will also increase. T線能rade between India and the EU To身姐 some extent, they have stren唱雪gthened their re城能gional integration. Our pr話通eliminary estimate may b光雨e related to the industrial stru場答cture of trade or 身會some laws at the prod木他uct level.

Against such a background, som北煙e of the biggest EU說海 countries such as German弟子y and France have r做物aised concerns about trade between C器業hina and the EU. EU cou嗎訊ntries' attitude towards China麗技's trade is actually divided into開藍 two factions: one faction can be attr雨我ibuted to France, Germany, Italy an購去d other core countries. Germany and 是白France account for a綠遠 very large share of trade among E她一U countries, and there are also EU org的妹anizations. A stronger voice, in 錯話fact, hopes to reduce trade with志計 China and promote r事黑egional integration; ot見子her marginalized店視 countries, such as Greece an下習d Portugal, are opposed to 麗雨their plans and hope to estab她街lish bilateral trade 街道and exchanges wi輛務th China. To ge機計t some of their be作畫nefits.

Xin Hua (Executi麗藍ve Deputy Director of the機嗎 European Studies Center of Shan不雪ghai International Studies Unive河下rsity and Directo錯朋r of the Academic Rese請要arch Department of the Shangha知你i European Society): I w高謝ill talk about the basic structure拿司 and long-term trends of China-EU econo樹到mic relations with the new trend of 靜見the European Union’s defensive economic學城 policy towards China. Before the end o技答f 2015, the main influencing facto北跳r of the EU’s defensive tra鄉司de and investment polic厭友y decisions on China生很 was the Trans-Pacific Partnership A雨讀greement (TPP) issued by the Obama見關 administration. In 2016,看些 the EU’s decision o黃開n China’s defensive t兒員rade and investment policy w雨喝as actually accompanied by 是好the EU’s determinatio都站n of China’s market到樂 economy status. Under such a backgr年書ound, in March 2016,和不 the European Commi暗綠ssion issued a more detailed, A ser下木ies of proposals fo林照r various punitive measures agai媽外nst anti-dumping and countervai習身ling measures for pr個這oducts imported from non很資-EU countries. In 2017, due to the impa科我ct of Britain's "Brexit" elections老購 and the elections 媽煙of the three countries of the Nether自不lands, France and Germany, the 雨多European Union is eager to s很低trengthen its intern術哥al cohesion. He hopes to strengt門她hen economic growth and ensure the 民間protection of the do金技mestic market for the 短作domestic market and industrial sectors笑身. Under this situation著劇, the EU has conducted a survey o爸作n the "market distortion" situation a低美nd re-raised the conce做音pt of globalization. In Sept間著ember this year, a 議商series of national c跳雨onditions documents were issued.

However, the curr雨北ent defensive economic policy of the 呢輛EU against China st場很ill shows a strong two-sidedness, whi女問ch is reflected in three points我明: First, the EU still n個歌ominally respects the WTO-led i公男nternational multilateral t綠街rading system and rules system, and sti開有ll affirms globalization, Howeve看話r, the European Union is reflecting o通視n globalization, 綠就and has put for影區ward some negative and視時 negative views. It b下員elieves that globalizatio身吃n needs to be constrained. If 制拍it is not constrained, the 拍行EU will be a loser in glob理林alization, and it will錯懂 be cheaper for the United年水 States and Chi做信na. Secondly, on the one hand, China 了黃still emphasizes the importance of C術件hina to the European eco數區nomy, but within t務睡he EU, the decision to consid亮我er China’s economic員了 opposition to and co森兒mpetition with Euro可北pe has become inc會小reasingly important. Third, o電得n the one hand,我下 China is still affirmed as a strateg秒哥ic partner of Europe好黃 and has important strategic value一銀 to the world; on the other hand,是樹 the EU is fundament海事ally suspicious of China’s bas通生ic economic system, which has ide購快ological factors. . Mor紅北eover, the EU's defensive economi哥靜c policy towards China may高年 develop stronger and strong員吧er in these three近紙 aspects.

Wu Yikang (Professor of得你 the European Researc話錢h Center of the Shang靜動hai Academy of Social Sciences, Honora讀不ry President of the Shanghai 們體European Society): The Fre可裡nch-German axis is sufficient to p飛秒lay a role, because the complementarit這說y is very good. I judge匠現 that Merkel may not 是音be able to form a算厭 strong government this鐘懂 time, which is more l書靜ikely to contribute to化雜 the balance between France and German火開y, which should have a positive sid低子e for European integration. Europe民男 has few actual 文舊conflicts of interest for上兒 China, but as Chi村紙na’s power grows str坐體onger, trade, investment, and eve短慢n the influence of China’s politica我南l system are expanding.

Europe is a very important 有錢and even stubbo師會rn base of Western ideology個小. At present, they believe對就 in pragmatism 著秒within Europe. When Europe's economy 靜資is difficult, prag請老matism and pragma話歌tism help economic r懂員ecovery. They w劇美ill accept and want to 書下develop more relat光美ions with China to fill the gaps in Eur什年ope. But we should not ign熱微ore or careless路農ly address ideolo服呢gical issues. On the i水都nternational stage, we ca作讀n pay special attention日如 to the relationship with Europ服民e, and the tone should not be 內煙too high. The development of Ch有那ina-EU relations may not 刀跳only be reflected in actual frictions i窗玩n the future, but may even ap畫作pear in ideology and va章煙lues.